3 in 5 US voters fear violence in 2024 presidential election: Poll

Most US voters fear election-related violence in the next presidential election in 2024, recent polling shows.


It comes after three former US Army generals expressed concern about the risk of a “civil war” over a White House vote, though some experts downplayed such warnings.

Three out of five (62 percent) voters surveyed in the new YouGov poll for the University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMass Amherst) expressed concerns about violence in 2024.


It found that 46 percent of Democrat respondents were “very concerned,” while another 34 percent were “somewhat concerned.” Only 13 percent were “not very worried” and only 6 percent were “not worried at all.”

Concern dipped among surveyed Republicans, with 16 percent “very worried” and 25 percent “somewhat worried.” Another 34 percent were “not very worried” and 25 percent were “not worried at all.”


Independents were more evenly divided, with 57 percent expressing that they were “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” about potential violence.

The survey was conducted from 14 to 20 December. It had a nationally representative sample of 1,000 respondents, and the margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and associate director of the poll, said: “The events at the US Capitol on January 6 have a profound effect on many voters.


“Three in five fear the prospect of election-related violence, with Democrats twice as likely to be concerned as Republicans.”

Concerns about a possible insurgency in 2024 were expressed in a December op-ed by former US generals Washington Post,

In this file photo, soldiers of the Virginia National Guard are released with an M4 rifle and live ammunition on the Eastern Front of the US Capitol on January 17, 2021. A recent poll suggested that most Americans are concerned about election-related violence in the 2024 presidential election.
Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Retired Major Generals Paul D. Eaton and Antonio M. Taguba joined Brigadier General Steven M. Anderson.


He warned of the possibility of a “total breakdown of the chain of command along partisan lines” and risked the rise of a “shadow government” that could be led by a losing candidate.

However, British-American historian Amanda Foreman, in a column based in London, underestimated concerns about descending into a second civil war. The Sunday Times,

Foreman said: “There is no connection between the factors that divided America then and now. By the time of the War in 1861, the North and the South were already separate entities in terms of ethnicity, customs, and law.”

She said: “Today there is a plethora of geographically dispersed voters. President Biden won Virginia and Georgia and nearly picked Texas in 2020, in 1860 there were ten southern states where Abraham Lincoln didn’t even appear on the ballot.”

Over the past year, Trump supporters have become animated over what they think of a stolen election, with several sitting GOP lawmakers echoing their claims of widespread election fraud.

The UMass Amherst poll showed that nearly eight out of 10 Republicans do not believe Biden was legitimately elected and continue to advance the unfounded claim that the 2020 election has been plagiarized in any way.

Earlier this week, Biden challenged Trump’s story of election fraud during a speech on the anniversary of the US Capitol riots.

Biden added: “And here’s the truth: The former President of the United States has created and spread a web of lies about the 2020 election.

“He has done this because he values ​​power over principle, because he considers his interests more important than the interests of his country and the interests of America, and because his trampled ego is more important to him than our democracy or our Constitution.” It matters.”

Crowd outside the Capitol
Pro-Trump supporters storm the US Capitol after a rally with President Donald Trump on January 6, 2021 in Washington, DC. According to a poll, most Americans fear violence during the 2024 presidential election.
Getty/Samuel Quorum/Stringer