338Canada: Is Canada’s Conservative Race Given?

– According to Anu Ipsos Polls hit the ground in mid-JulyCharest’s favorable impression among CPC voters has increased by 18 points since Ipsos voted in April. At 45 percent, their favorable impressions are statistically associated with 49 percent of polyvers.

Charest’s adverse effects fell 5 points to 35 percent, while Polyvre’s adverse effects sat at 29 percent, a statistically significant 9-point increase since spring.

, Second survey from abacus data Measured the positive and negative effects of leadership pioneers. While the numbers differ somewhat from Ipsos, the trends are similar for Cherest. Compared to an abacus poll in June, negative impressions for Charest fell from 27 to 18 percent and positive impressions increased from 24 to 37 percent.

Their net impressions (positive impressions minus negative impressions) went from minus -3 to plus -19. Although this rating surpasses that of Poilivre, it is a remarkable change for a politician that many said time has passed.

, Third Survey by Angus Reed Institute Fictional nationwide voting intentions tested. The results showed the CPC would take the national turnout intent to 34 percent, with Poilivar or Cherest at the top (similar to the CPC result of the previous election). However, the field analysis of the survey suggests completely different scenarios.

Under Poilievre, the CPC will – once again – raise the score in Alberta and the Prairies, where the party has a few extra seats to add to its current tally. The Conservatives would stand third in Quebec (again) and fight a three-way race with the Liberals and the NDP in Ontario.

– What’s next: Let’s have a little fun with those numbers, even if they’re overly fictional.

The findings suggest that the next election may see a Liberal minority fall short, perhaps even a broken parliament – ​​meaning no natural alliance would be possible – as it would be unlikely that Liberal and NDP seats would hold the 170-threshold for a majority in the House. achieve. Commons.

However, with Chareste as leader, the Conservatives would advance in Atlantic Canada, significantly damaging the Liberals in Quebec and scoring better than Poiliver in seat-rich Ontario.

Naturally, these are voting numbers that Charest could have used during the membership enrollment period, which ended in June. It was a reasonable hypothesis from many observers that Chareste would potentially outperform Polivar in central Canada, where the CPC needed overwhelming support to win. The Angus Reed Pole points in the same direction. Simply put: a higher number of chests will translate into a better chance of the CPC winning the general election.

That said, Poilivere’s numbers (above) show without a doubt that he will be competitive, and could potentially win. This should put an end to the notion that Poilievre’s partisan rhetoric will overwhelm the CPC.

– Frontrunner’s Strategy: It is no surprise that Poilivar has declined to participate in this week’s CPC debate. He doesn’t need to argue further over Cherrest to secure the leadership, nor does he need to risk a stumbling block that will speed up his challenger.

In a statement explaining his decision to sit out of the debate, Poilivre took another swipe at charest (“tax and spending, carbon tax-loving, defeated Liberal premier”) and his trademark word salad (“Laurentian Elite Liberal”) to attack his party and his choice of moderators for the Edmonton debate. media”). In May, which he described as an “embarrassment”.

Although this is not the action of a candidate who believes that the race is on the fringes, this strategy – always on attack and never on defense – propels Poilivre as a darling among unabashedly conservative supporters, many of whom believe Chareste closely aligned with liberals in policy and attitude. Is.

In any case, if Poilivere recruited more than 300,000 new members as claimed, his team alone managed to nearly double the overall membership of the CPC. We also know from the numerous surveys published from April to June that Polivere was supported by existing memberships. add to CPC’s only prime minister and fatherly blessing in Stephen Harper And you have all the ingredients for a first-ballot victory — or very close to it.

– After 10 September: If that is indeed the case, the next question would be, “Will Poilivar reduce his confrontational rhetoric to keep his caucus together?” Those who have followed Poilivre’s already long political career know that the chances are slim.

Still, between a Poilivere-led CPC and a Trudeau-NDP coalition — er, a “trust and supply agreement” — it appears that an already deep gap across Canada’s political spectrum may be widening.

Surely there might be a point when Red Tories and Blue Grits would consider working to fill this void? If liberal conservatives (including some current CPC lawmakers) find themselves shrouded in convoys and anti-vaccination crowds, it’s fair to assume that some just can’t stick around.

Could Chest’s Summer of Redemption Tour lead to the creation of a much-anticipated… the new Progressive Conservative Party?

Of course, we can only speculate. The odds seem low, although the recent surge in charest support has made this an almost unimaginable outcome, well, somewhat conceivable.

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