For most of the last half-century, Republicans have been successful in spurring their voters to the issue m*scarriage in the hope that the Supreme Court will reverse the landmark case of Roe v. Wade. It happened in June, and since then it has been the Democrats who have been able to take advantage of the political opening that arose when the supreme court abolished the federal right to ab*rtion.

Access to ab*rtion ultimately proved to be a powerful force in the 2022 mid-term election, lifting Democrats in combat and helping to weaken the expected wave of Republicans into a wave.

In five states where the matter was directly related to the balloteach contest was based on the protection of ab*rtion rights – even in heavily republican states such as Kentucky and Montana.

In Pennsylvania and Michigan, voters identified access to ab*rtion as their main concern, ahead of inflation. This dynamics helped propel Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman to victory, depriving Republicans of a seat in the US Senate. And in Michigan, the amendment protecting ab*rtion rights was easily adopted. By campaigning on this, the Democrats retained the governor and won state legislature control for the first time in almost 30 years.

Voters in California and Vermont have passed similar voting initiatives. And voters in Kentucky and Montana it rejected measures that would further restrict ab*rtion.

These results help answer one of the main questions of the mid-term campaign: whether the fervor of the fall of Roe v. Wade in the summer could last until November.

“Despite Roe’s devastating loss this summer, there was much to hope for this year,” said Ashley All, senior adviser to Families United for Freedom, who worked to beat the Kansas ab*rtion initiative in August and provided funds and resources to Michigan’s efforts. Kentucky and Montana. The group has approached the matter in a non-partisan manner and is already working with other countries where the fight for ab*rtion rights is likely to continue.

In total, more than $ 428 million was spent on mid-term advertising on the affair, with Democrats far superior to Republicans, according to a tracking conducted by AdImpact.

In Michigan, Democrats spent over $ 38 million; Republicans spent just over $ 7.5 million. In Nevada, Democrats spent over $ 36 million, Republicans $ 1.4 million. In Arizona, Democrats spent over $ 30.7 million, Republicans spent $ 3.3 million. In Pennsylvania, the Democrats spent over $ 27 million; Republicans spent less than $ 65,000.

Anti-ab*rtion groups recognized the strength of the Democrats’ strategy. “There is no doubt that Dobbs’ decision was a political earthquake, giving Democrats a unique opportunity to motivate their depressed base and giving them the best opportunity they will ever have to take advantage of the issue politically,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, Susan B. President, Anthony Pro-Life America.

Dannenfelser said that in addition to the large imbalance in spending on the problem, key Republican candidates are demoralizing their own base by adopting the “ostrich strategy: burying their heads in the sand and running from the problem, allowing opponents to define it.” She pointed to Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and criticized Senate leader Mitch McConnell for not voting in his home state of Kentucky.

“There really is power in this,” said Jill Alper, chief strategist on Michigan’s voting procedure known as Proposition 3. Alper noted voting success in areas of the state where Democrats typically do not do well. “Proposition 3 won where it had no interest in winning,” she said.

The Michigan exit poll found 45% of voters identified ab*rtion as their number one concern – leading to double-digit inflation. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer made access to ab*rtion a central part of its campaign after preemptively suing for the blocking of the 1931 ab*rtion ban with the overturning of the Roe v. Wade judgment. Her opponent Tudor Dixon opposed ab*rtion, including in cases of rape and incest.

The case also worked in favor of Democrats in states with no direct voting means.

In Pennsylvania, the exit poll found ab*rtion to be the most important issue for voters. Thirty-seven percent identified it as their main problem – beating inflation (28%) and crime (11%). Democrat Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s attorney general, won the governor’s double-digit race against state Senator Doug Mastriano, who was against ab*rtion, including in rape and incest cases. While ab*rtion rights were not directly voted on in the state – the Republicans controlled the legislature, and the Republican governor could pave the way for further restrictions.

“It is not the freedom to tell women what they are allowed to do with their bodies. It’s not freedom, ”Shapiro said at the pre-election rally. Not only has Mastriano lost, but the Democrats seem ready to take control of the State House for the first time since 2010.

Part of the message of Fetterman’s campaign focused on ab*rtion rights, trying to tie Oz to Mastriano and efforts against ab*rtion rights. In a lonely debate, Oz said ab*rtion decisions should be made between women, doctors and “local political leaders.” Democrats quickly trimmed the video and featured it in campaign commercials.

This was a key issue for the Democrat volunteers as well. Karen Moustafellos, who has organized with the grassroots organization Red, Wine and Blue targeting suburban women, said she was discussing ab*rtion as an economic issue as well as personal rights.

“Taking rights back when we lose them will really take a long time to get them back,” said Moustafellos.

New Hampshire Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan, once considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats seeking re-election, was one of the first candidates to launch advertising focused on ab*rtion after Dobbs’s decision. She continued running ads on the issue throughout the election season, despite the fact that her opponent, Don Bolduc, was not firm until September, one of the last primaries.

When polls indicated that the race was escalating, Hassan continued this line of att*ck, using Don Bolduc’s remarks on the overthrow of the Roe v. Wade case to “overcome it.” A survey at the end of the study found ab*rtion was almost on par with inflation as the most important issue, 35-36%. Hassan won women by nearly 20 percentage points. Democrats also kept both seats in the House.

Following Dobbs’s decision in June, more women registered to vote in key battlefield states than in the same period in 2018 or 2020, said Tom Bonier of TargetSmart.

“When you look at the states that have had the greatest impact on Dobbs, have had the greatest increase in the number of women, especially younger women after Dobbs, you can honestly see that Democrats are doing better,” Bonier said, pointing to the results in Michigan and Pennsylvania. “Surely you see a very similar pattern to what we saw in voter registration data.”

He noted that in Kansas, where there has been a sharp rise in the number of women registering to vote ahead of the August primaries, when voters rejected a measure that could lead to further ab*rtion restrictions, Democrats also succeeded on Tuesday. Democratic governor Laura Kelly won re-election, and Congresswoman Sharice Davids won a third term despite redistribution that favored the Republicans.

However, Dobbs’s decision did not appear to have had a similar effect on voter registration in Florida, where Republicans made a bold win in key state and congressional races on Tuesday.

Republican governor Ron DeSantis, who signed a 15-week ab*rtion limit, won 53% of women. And GOP Senator Marco Rubio, who also backed the action, won 51% of the women.

In addition to DeSantis, other Republican governors who signed ab*rtion restrictions in state law also won re-election. Mike DeWine of Ohio; Brian Kemp from Georgia; and Texas Governor Greg Abbott won with a significant advantage.

“GOP pro-life candidates win competitive races if they label their opponents as ab*rtion extremists … and this contrasts with a clearly defined pro-life stance focused on consensus such as pain reduction or heartbeat,” said Dannenfelser. “This must be a key conclusion for the GOP as we move closer to the 2024 presidential cycle, especially for those watching the run to the White House.

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