With less than five months left in the November midterm election, Democrats aim to maintain their momentum through 2020 and hope to once again defeat Republicans in Georgia.
President Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump in Georgia by more than 12,000 votes – a margin of 0.2 percentage points. This made Biden the first Democratic presidential candidate to win in the conservative state since 1992.
Simultaneously, Democratic Senators Raphael Warnock and John Osoff defeated Republican incumbents to blue their seats during a runoff election last January. Prior to its elections, Georgia last elected Democrats to represent the state in the Senate in 1996.
However, recent polls suggest that holding on to power in the state could be an uphill battle for Democrats – especially as Biden and his party face low approval ratings across the country.
Democrats and Republicans alike are eyeing the race for the governor’s mansion and the contest for Warnock’s hard-won Senate seat. While Democrats aim to maintain and extend their winning streak, Republicans hope to hold their lead and win back the Senate seat they lost in the 2021 runoff election.
When it comes to the gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp faces a second challenge from former Democratic State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, who previously lost to a GOP politician in 2018. Recent polling suggests the dominant Democrats may find a way to win again. difficult to achieve.
the current real clear politics Georgia’s poll average shows Abrams trails Kemp by about 5.2 percent. Incumbent Republicans have the support of about 49.6 percent of Georgians, compared to 44.4 percent supporting the Democratic nominee.
Meanwhile, the most recent survey conducted by East Carolina University June 6 to 9 shows similar results, with Abrams down five points. Kemp enjoys the support of 50 percent of Georgia’s registered voters, while the Democratic nominee has only 45 percent. 868 voters were included in the survey, with an error of 3.9 percent plus or minus.
Warnock is in a somewhat better position to stop his GOP challenger, Herschel Walker. However, the Democratic senator and his Republican opponent, who has been endorsed by Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, are virtually tied.
real clear politics‘ The average currently shows Walker with a narrow lead of less than one point. The Republican candidate has the support of about 47.2 percent of Georgians, while the Democratic incumbent has the support of about 46.6 percent.
The most recent poll for the election by East Carolina University shows that both Walker and Warnock have the support of 46 percent of Georgia’s registered voters.
Notably, if Warnock loses to Walker, a GOP victory could shift the balance of power in the Senate. With the legislative chamber divided evenly, losing only one seat to the Democrats as well as choosing another held by a Republican would be enough to get the GOP back a majority.
That same East Carolina University survey shows Biden’s approval ratings are deep underwater in the southern state. The majority (54 percent) of Georgians disapprove of the Democratic presidential job performance. Only 38 percent approve.
Survey conducted in early April by Emerson College and The Hill Underwater also showed the President’s approval rating. That poll showed that 49 percent of registered voters in Georgia disapprove of him. Only 42 percent got approval for the work Biden was doing. The survey covered 1,013 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.
Whether Democrats can ultimately win two high-profile statewide races in Georgia, along with others for lieutenant governor, attorney general and secretary of state, remains to be seen. However, recent polling data suggests that the coming months will be challenging as they put their agenda before the voters.