Of all the tight races that Republicans have been in this year, few expected conservative Lauren Boebert to be the one headed for a recount. But the congresswoman’s narrow lead over Democratic nominee Adam Frisch falls within Colorado’s 0.5 percent threshold, which puts her 3. The district will probably keep one.

The good news for the GOP is that Boebert is on track to maintain his lead from the initial result, and since recounts rarely change the outcome of the election, Republicans are poised to hold onto the seat.

The competitiveness of Boebert’s district shocked many. It was widely predicted that the congresswoman would win re-election in a predominately Red district, but an early count of votes showed Frisch leading, and even with Boebert ahead of his opponent, the margin remained narrow.

On Wednesday, Boebert led by 0.35 percent, but after the final votes were counted, Frisch cut her narrow lead by half. With almost all the votes counted, Boebert has a lead of just 0.16 percentage points, or 551 votes.

Representative Lauren Boebert departs after the House of Representatives’ Second Amendment press conference at the U.S. Capitol on June 8, 2022 in Washington, D.C. Boebert’s midterm race against Frisch is likely headed for a recount, with only 551 votes now separating them.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

In Colorado, a vote recount is mandatory if the vote margin between the top two candidates is 0.5 percent or less. While recounts are not uncommon, especially for state and local candidates, they rarely interfere with election results.

With more than 500 votes remaining between Boebert and Frisch, Frisch is unlikely to turn the district blue, said Seth Masket, director of the University of Denver’s Center for American Policy. Newsweek.

“It’s rare for the recount to change by more than a few dozen votes, maybe a few hundred outside,” Masket said.

A 2020 study by the nonpartisan group Fair Vote found that while there were 31 statewide recounts between 2000 and 2019, and 22 of those cases resulted in a change in the margin of victory, only three of the 31 recounts changed the outcome of that election. These changes occurred in the 2004 race for governor in Washington, the 2006 Vermont state auditors race, and the 2008 Minnesota Senate race.

“Statewide recounting did not reverse election results that did not have an extremely close margin in the initial count,” the study concluded.

While the report did not analyze house races, its findings suggest there is little chance that a recount will give Frisch enough votes to fill the gap.

Moreover, the recalculations tended to increase the starting margin of victory rather than decrease it, Fair Vote said. Thus, Boebert’s victory may be even greater.

Although the race currently remains undecided, Boebert has already claimed victory, citing the rarity of how coverage changes the outcome of an election.

In a statement shared on Friday Newsweeka spokesman for the congresswoman said Colorado’s coverage historically changes the outcome “very little.”

“The last recount in Colorado involved statewide elections, not just congressional, and changed the result by only 13 votes,” a spokesman for Boebert said. “Once all legal ballots are counted and the race is certified on or before December 6, Congresswoman Boebert will win her race.”

On Thursday night, the incumbent Republican celebrated on Twitter, writing “We won!” alongside a video message that assured voters that despite the “automatic recount”, they could be “confident” that he would return to Congress “in January”.

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