Odds, opt for Monday’s opener

The New York Yankees have been a pretty pedestrian baseball team since mid-June. After a 50-17 start to the season, the Bombers are just over 19-17 in their last 36 matches. Such a long stretch may seem on the surface, but given that they are still 11.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays in the AL East, there is no reason to panic in the Bronx, at least not yet.

And despite the swoon in the middle of summer, the Yankees are still posting gaudy numbers. The Bombers are scoring 6.1 runs per game and have posted a .345 wOBA, .792 OPS, and a 127 wRC+ since June 19. Those numbers are just about inline — and in some cases stronger — with their season-long metrics.

What’s even more impressive is that the Yankees are posting these kinds of numbers, despite some relatively bad luck. In this 36-game stretch, the Bombers have a .270 BABIP (batting average on balls in game), ranking 28th out of 30 teams in MLB.

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Yankees vs Mariners Prediction

While the Yankees offense continues, the past six weeks have not been that kind for the pitching staff. After posting an impressive-but-sustainable 2.86 ERA through their first 67 games of the season, the Pinstrips are back down to earth to the tune of 3.97 ERA in their last 36 competitions.

New York’s 3.68 xFIP in the last 36 games shows the Yankees pitched better than their ERA suggests, but betting on that positive regression to show up on the mound with Domingo the German on Monday night isn’t a good idea looks like. ,

Making his third start of the season, it was thought the German might boost Aaron Boone’s staff and help stabilize things as we begin to head for the stretch run. So far, the opposite has been true, as the German pitched for an 8.22 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and 5.05 xFIP in his first 7.2 innings of the season.

Domingo German
Domingo German
Getty Images

Those performances need context as they came against the Astros and the Mets, and they were the German’s first MLB appearance in nine months, but it’s hard to rely on the 29-year-old to be effective against a powerful Mariners offense when he’s just now. is also clearly trying to find its rhythm.

Marco Gonzales will draw on the incredible task of trying to navigate the Yankee lineup on Monday, and he could be in for a long night, considering the Bombers have scored 25 runs in their last three games.

Gonzales is a bit of an enigma because everything about his profile suggests that he should be lit up at night. Gonzales ranks in the second percentile in strikeouts, the 53rd percentile in walk rate, and doesn’t inspire that many groundballs. Despite all this, Gonzales has posted a 3.66 ERA on the season and 12 quality starts on the season.

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Even though Gonzales is difficult to project, this matchup appears to be a problem for him. Not only has the Yankees offense been humming, but it has topped almost every metric this season compared to left-handed pitching.

Given that he hasn’t found his feet yet, endorsing the German as the chunky favorite doesn’t make sense. And the numbers on Gonzales — a flyball pitcher working at Yankee Stadium — aren’t enough to be interesting. Instead, bookies may look to the total for something of value as this pitching matchup has a lot of potential on Monday night.

Yankees vs Mariners Pick

Condition: more than 9 runs

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