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Rising temperatures will change the use of air conditioning – but not as much as you would expect.

An Indian migrant daily wage worker sleeps in a steel box under an air cooler under a mosquito net, which used to store shop items in New Delhi at night.۔

An Indian migrant daily wage worker sleeps in a steel box under an air cooler under a mosquito net, which used to store shop items in New Delhi at night.
Image: Altaf Qadri (AP)

after the Deadly summer, The future of air conditioning The world is increasingly focused on rising temperatures. While some research has indicated that we can. “Basically we cook ourselves” If the world collectively changes air conditioning during the heat, a new study suggests that the reality may be slightly different. And in some ways, the consequences are even more alarming.

In a ___ the study Published in Nature on Wednesday, a team of researchers from the Climate Impact Lab, a collaboration between environmental experts from various organizations, set out to determine how much domestic energy use has increased and how it has been affected by climate change. Will increase The results show that there are severe inequalities in future energy use for heating and cooling. According to him, the richest people in the world will benefit from saving on heat in winter, while the rest of the world will struggle without access to air conditioning in summer. Middle-income countries, meanwhile, may see the energy burden increase as they struggle to cope with the scorching heat.

To do the math on how energy consumption would change, the researchers first collected 40 years of energy use datasets from 146 countries, as well as data on historical weather trends, and then measured how. Energy consumption varies with extreme temperatures in different regions. This comprehensive approach offers a rare glimpse into the use of real heating and cooling energy around the world.

Amir Gina, an assistant professor of public policy at the University of Chicago and co-author of the study, wrote in an email: “In previous work, researchers have often looked at what happens in poor areas.” “So, for example, they will learn about how temperature affects the use of AC in very rich America, and how it applies in very rich India.” This could increase the energy costs of climate change, as you would assume that every Indian home would only turn on its AC when heated and use a lot of energy. But we know that most households in India do not have AC units, so if you do not include data in India or other less affluent places, you get the wrong answer.

Bird’s eye view shows that in rich places, rich people خاص especially the top 10 their change their air conditioners, increasing electricity consumption per person. But despite the rise in temperature, there has been little increase in individual energy use in poor areas.

The researchers then divided the world into more than 24,000 different regions, based on existing administrative divisions or administrative distribution groups within national borders, such as U.S. counties. He then made estimates of future energy use, using various costs and economic scenarios to project these effects.

By the end of this century, areas in India, Indonesia and Mexico – where air conditioning is not widely used – will use dramatically more electricity for cooling as they learn how to cope with rising temperatures. In India alone, energy consumption is expected to increase by about 14%. The dramatic increase in electricity consumption in these countries is not only due to rising temperatures, although they are also in countries where economic growth will make air conditioning more accessible to a large segment of the population. Other countries will see massive changes based on climate change, including a staggering 2,086% increase in electricity consumption in Nigeria. Wealthy countries like the United States will also see an increase in the use of electricity for cooling, but given the already high access to cooling technologies, it will be only a modest percentage at 3%.

Research also shows that fewer cold days means the world will use less thermal fuel, so much so that it will meet changes in electricity demand. This study is part of the Climate Impact Lab’s efforts to find out how climate change will affect economies and lives locally around the world, so that social costs of carbon can be more accurately addressed. Estimates can be provided. The economic value of emitting a ton of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere today, a metric used worldwide.

The results show that part of the SCC is only connected to heating and cooling. Negative, From $ 3 to $ 1. This means that for global warming and cooling in purely economic terms, rising temperatures are fine. But that’s not the metric that really matters here for global warming and cooling. The study shows that the biggest cost savings will be in the richest countries, which are largely away from the tropics. Those countries will use less energy for heating because the winters are warmer. Poor countries – most of them in the tropics – need to know how. Dealing with overheating. And demand more cooling on the grid.

“The economic impact of heat on global energy consumption is negligible,” Gina said. “Despite this small net effect, though, inequality is high around the world – we see places that benefit because they don’t have to spend a lot on heating, but it’s not so hot that many Where ACs are needed, places that are warm but rich enough to withstand AC, and places that are really hot but not so rich, even by the end of the century, are widely used by cooling technologies. Repeatedly, we see that severe inequality is a feature of climate change.

This raises a wide range of questions about equality and energy access around the world, now and in the future. Countries like India, with an estimated 145% increase in energy, need to know how to adapt their power systems to a warmer world. These countries – and the extremely weak populations that call them home – did nothing to cause the climate crisis.

SCC is much more than what appears on your electric bill every month. Previous research, including. Some environmental impact through the lab.Shows that the damage from the climate crisis will be severe. A small offset in the Energy SCC will be caused by the loss of life due to extreme heat. Infrastructure destroyed by rising seas, And more.

“There is a big difference between place and climate in how people are affected,” Gina said. “If we really care about this inequality in impact, we need to get as much information as possible about the differences in all populations.”

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