The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season begins in August

The Atlantic hurricane season has been sleepy for about a month, but don’t expect it to be quiet for much longer as hurricane season is at its peak.

Tropical Storm Colin, which briefly affected the coastal Carolinas with heavy rain and high winds on July 2 and 3, was the last system to move across the Atlantic basin.

However, it is not uncommon Decrease in activity in the tropics in June or July Before the season starts in August.

according to National Hurricane CenterAn average June in the Atlantic has a named storm every one to two years, while a July average has a named storm every year.

But as you can see in the graph below, about 90% of the average Atlantic hurricane season is still remaining as we head into August.

The period from August to early October produces the most hurricanes and tropical storms in an average year. September is the most active month of the Atlantic hurricane season, with September 10 marking the official seasonal peak.

As a result, this same period is typically when the strongest, most influential storms move across the Atlantic basin.

in bus last five years – 2017 to 2021 – The US had four hurricanes in August, five in September and four in October. That included last year’s Hurricane Ida, which devastated parts of southeastern Louisiana after making landfall as one. Category 4 hurricane on 29 August.

The storm produced a powerful 14-foot tornado along the Louisiana coastline and caused torrential rains across much of the northern Gulf Coast, but its effects didn’t stop there. The effects of the storm were also felt throughout the Eastern Seaboard, where tornadoes and flooding were reported as far north as New England.

Hurricane Ida was blamed for the deaths of more than 100 people, and its Estimated loss exceeds $75 billion From the Caribbean to New England. The destruction was enough to propel the hurricane to the fifth costliest hurricane in US history, ranking behind Katrina, Harvey, Maria, and Sandy, respectively.

world meteorological organization Voted to retire under the name “Ida” in April 2022 From future use in the Atlantic basin.

Most hurricanes and tropical storms occur in August through early October.
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Csu And Noaa'S Outlook For The Atlantic Hurricane Season.
About 90% of an average Atlantic hurricane season is still remaining.
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Why does the Atlantic become more active in August?

Compared to June and July, the tropics become more active in August as almost the entire Atlantic basin becomes available for tropical development.

The so-called main development zone between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, which is generally not favorable for storms at the beginning of the season, because of frequent flooding. Saharan dust and dry air in the region, becomes more conducive to growth as dusty, dry air becomes less stable.

Tropical waves also emerge from West Africa more frequently by August, and if conditions are favourable, they are often the seed for tropical growth in the main growth zone during the peak of hurricane season.

Infrared Satellite Image Of Hurricane Ida.
Hurricane Ida was responsible for the deaths of more than 100 people and became the fifth costliest hurricane in US history.
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
A Man Looks At The House That Collapsed With Him During The Height Of Hurricane Ida In New Orleans, Louisiana.
A man looks at the house that collapsed with him during the height of Hurricane Ida in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Michael DeMocker/USA Today Network Via Reuters

If a tropical wave gives rise to a tropical storm or hurricane in the main development zone, it often moves westward to the Lesser Antilles in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some of these storms travel 3,500 miles long from the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean toward Caribbean islands or the U.S. coast, while others drift northwest toward Bermuda or harmlessly into the open ocean.

Storms that develop in this region in the west of Africa are called Cabo Verde hurricanes, named after the island nation a few hundred miles west of continental Africa. Cabo Verde hurricanes are very common in September.

The Gulf of Mexico is another hot spot for tropical storms and hurricanes to form during the peak of the season as water temperatures in the Gulf reach their highest levels of the year, providing more energy for tropical cyclones to grow and intensify. .

August Tropical Activity.
In August, almost the entire Atlantic basin becomes available for tropical development.
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September Tropical Activity.
The main development zone between Africa and the Lesser Antilles becomes more conducive to tropical storms as the dusty, dry air from the Sahara becomes less stable.
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Outlook for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Including the three storms that have already formed this season, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts 14 to 21 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale,

Colorado State University’s latest outlook predicts that 17 more will be named storms For a total of 20 this season. That tally includes 10 hurricanes, of which five are estimated to be Category 3 or higher.

These numbers are higher than the 30-year average (1991–2020) of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

If the outlooks verify, this would mark the seventh consecutive above average Atlantic hurricane season.

Since Alex, Bonnie, and Colin have already formed, the next system to become at least one tropical storm will receive the name “Daniel”.

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