Epidemic recovery has slowed in recent months, and statisticians believe activity has slowed slightly in July. Output has not yet reached its pre-epidemic level and will fall short of growth forecasts set by the Bank of England (BoE).
Activity rose 0.4 percent in August, lower than some economists had expected, and as the data revised, July’s ‘Pangdemek’ pushed the economy to a modest 0.1 percent contraction compared to June. ۔
Meanwhile, “in recent times Shortage And the fuel crisis could mean that growth has stalled since August.
The latest figures emerge as global lenders, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday identifying the risk of inflationary shocks in the UK and US in its latest global health check.
The sharp rise in prices, along with the prospect of slowing growth in the coming months, will pose a challenge for policymakers on Threadneedle Street as to whether to reduce its support for the economy by buying extremely low interest rates and bonds. Go
Rising interest rates are often used as a tool to cool the inflation caused by economic growth, rather than supply shocks, due to such a recent surge in natural gas prices. Increase In BOE, pressure is mounting on rate takers on how to control inflation. Investors are betting that this year’s rate hike could come soon.
Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), said: “The economy rebounded in August as bars, restaurants and festivals benefited from the first full month without restrictions.”
“However, later and slightly weaker data from several industries mean that we estimate that the economy fell slightly in July.”
According to the ONS, the relatively slow growth in July and August means that the economy is 0.8% below its pre-epidemic level in February 2020.
The shortage of materials, which is global in nature, indicates that growth will act as a handbrake in growth. These global problems have been exacerbated by the severe shortage of labor in the UK as a result of the low number of EU migrants in areas such as HGV drivers.
In construction, the 0.2% decline in production is the third such decline in four months. Recent survey data suggests that ongoing problems with sourcing materials will hinder growth in the winter.
Economists warn that domestic crises will merge with global problems. “Such drags will become more widespread and important in September and October, and the fuel crisis will prevent some people from going to work,” Mr Dales said.
The Bank of England predicts that The UK economy Compared to the previous quarter, the three months of September will increase by 2.1%.
However, that possibility was now possibly “invincible”, said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. This will require rapid growth of 2.2% from August to September, which is not supported by any of the fast, indicative survey data. Mr Tombs said this meant that the Bank of England would cut its third-quarter rate to 1.5 per cent on November 4.