I sometimes think of a phone call with a friend in the spring of 2020. The cases were down and the pundits were hopeful: it was really possible that it would all be over by mid-summer. This past two months, I asked my friend – would they look like a weird dream, in the comfort of summer? When, three months later, the bars were crowded and the mask factories closed, what would we do with the memory of spring? To which my friend said something: Who knows, it is difficult to say. And then we said something else. And then the plague continued for another eighteen months. And now we’re here, and it’s still an epidemic, and although things are infinitely better than they were a year ago, the fact is that we’re still wearing masks on the subway. So: when, of course, can we really claim to lick this thing? Will the Matrix, the facts on Earth, determine how we can get back to normal? For this week Geese asksWe contacted several experts to find out.
Associate Professor, Epidemiology, University of Michigan.
The uncertainty is too great to put any kind of specific date on it, although it is clear that we still have a long way to go. Depending on how it ends – as much as I’d like to see it reach “coveted zero”, I would expect at the moment that we’re moving to a local, perhaps seasonal transmission, where most people have been vaccinated. Yes or some immunity due to a previous infection and thus the infections are less severe. It adheres to prevention strategies such as masking and vaccination (and increasing access to global vaccines) to reduce transmission and stress on the healthcare system, in order to reduce the number of deaths. And the serious consequences of cowardice could be epidemic.
When it comes to quality, I would expect epidemics to be considered “extinct” when cases, hospital admissions, and deaths due to Covid 19 are at relatively low, manageable levels. In terms of numbers, this will probably vary from one country to another, but one can see the same as we usually see with the flu, which causes 12,000-61 per year in the United States. 000 deaths (COVID-19 in the United States in 2020, compared to 375,000 deaths, and about 5295,000 more in 2021 so far).
It is important to note that different locations are likely to reach the end of the epidemic at different times (depending on vaccine access / optic, social distance and other mitigation measures, etc.), and that when the epidemic is over It still has many long-term effects to fight – whether it’s long-term cowardice, mental health effects, misinformation and mistrust issues, or economic effects.
Professor of Emergency Physics and Public Health at George Washington University, and author. Lifelines: The Doctor’s Journey in the War of Public Health.
I don’t think we as a society have explained what it means to end an epidemic. Will it ‘end’ when there are no more cases of Covid 19? Will it ‘end’ when the level of hospitalization is such that we no longer worry about overwhelming our healthcare system? Will it ‘end’ when the death toll falls below a certain number? Regardless, I think most people would agree that we are nowhere near the threshold below which Quaid 19, the worst public health of our lives, is no longer an immediate concern. I don’t think we’re going to have that level of stability anytime soon. Of course, this is not going to happen while young children are still ineligible for the vaccine. Nor are there many in the world, the weakest of us, who do not have access to vaccines. At some point, we will have to come to a new understanding of what it means to reach a stable state of this epidemic, where it is no longer at the top of our every decision. But now we are nowhere near this place.
Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security specializing in Infectious Diseases, Critical Care (ICU) and Emergency Medicine
The epidemic will end globally when most nations of the world can treat Covid 19 like other respiratory viruses they encounter year after year. SARS-CoV2 is an effectively contagious respiratory virus with a wide range of symptoms circulating in animal hosts اسے it cannot be eradicated or eradicated. The goal is to eliminate its potential for serious illness, hospitalization and mass death. It is obtained by vaccinating people at high risk of complications, so hospitalization excludes cases, but there is always a basic level of cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. Natural immunity after infection also plays an important role but is not the best way to control the virus. The epidemic will eventually spread to a pandemic, and the post-epidemic world will be one in which Covid 19 still exists but in a much more manageable environment.
Professor and Chair of Epidemiology at UC Berkeley.
The honest answer is that no one can know for sure, partly because of the unknown future of the varieties that can survive vaccine-infected protection, and partly because it is not clear to us. When will the largest proportion of the world’s population be found? But the future is probably one in which SARS-CoV-2 regularly circulates in the human population and becomes a local infection / disease, perhaps with seasonal pattern of influenza. I don’t think this scene will stay with us for at least 12-18 months.
Dean of the Malikan Institute School of Public Health and Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health at George Washington University.
The task of making enough vaccines, and carrying them in everyone’s arms, while advancing the virus’s ability to change – is no hurry. I think it will be at least a year until the epidemic is over, and that’s very optimistic. The inequality involved in vaccine production, and the level of resistance we see for vaccination, means that it may actually take a few years to disappear.
This is humility. First of all, our knowledge of the corona virus was not as good as it should have been. We have no idea how fast this could change. Meanwhile, our knowledge of human behavior, as we are learning, was incomplete. We did not anticipate the level of miscommunication we would face, nor the lack of scientific literacy. People know that some vaccines use mRNA, but if you don’t know enough about genetics or the science involved, it can be scary instead of reassuring. People start going to tangents – “Well, what does that have to do with you?” – Without understanding how genetics works. It is understandable to me that people have these fears or anxieties, but it is causing a great deal of hesitation about the vaccine. This is bad because science tells us that mRNA does not change the body’s DNA in any way.
Then of course there is the problem of developing vaccines for children, which, as a pediatrician, I never thought could happen. The virus is still circulating in children, and it is keeping the epidemic alive, because as long as children are circulating the virus, we will see more breakthrough infections in adults around them.
We will know that this epidemic is over when we are not seeing a high rate of deaths due to covid on a daily basis – not only in the United States but all over the world. One thing we do know is that the epidemic will not end as long as the coyote is circulating around the world. This does not mean that we have to end every case. What we can conclude is a situation where, with the exception of the population, or mutation, or (more likely) both, the virus disappears like a cold or the annual influenza, where we must pay attention. Granted, maybe every winter as a seasonal delivery, and people have to be vaccinated every year, but now we don’t have that high mortality rate.
Do you have any questions for Giz Asks? Email us at [email protected]